The first of these problems is, precisely, that of division. Spain emerges from the general elections of July 23 and the subsequent long process to form a new Government more divided and with a more polarized society. The distance between the two main parties, the Popular Party (PP), on the right, and the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), on the left, has increased considerably. At this time, it is almost impossible to think of measures agreed upon between these two parties to improve the economy and promote the country’s progress.

This division and unrest in society is due, in part, to the way in which the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has negotiated his continuity in office. Sánchez has managed to revalidate his position thanks to the support obtained by the Catalan independentists in exchange for an amnesty for the crimes committed with the celebration of the illegal referendum on October 1, 2017. One of the beneficiaries of this amnesty will be Carles Puigdemont himself, who is a fugitive from Spanish justice.

This amnesty has been criticized by all organizations of judges, lawyers, notaries, as well as by the majority of senior employees of the Public Administration. Hundreds of thousands of people have demonstrated in the streets against this measure, which has also aroused criticism and distrust among members of the European Parliament.

The concessions to the independentists and other government partners, such as the coalition of far-left Sumar, have also caused concern in some sectors of businessmen due to the risks to legal security required for investment in the country. Some leaders of prominent companies have spoken publicly in this regard and have warned of the need to create conditions of stability and guarantees as soon as possible to facilitate the development of economic activity.

It is difficult to anticipate when and how that political stability can be restored. Some even predict a short life for the Government that has just been born, although the PP does not have enough seats in Parliament to attempt a motion of censure, not even with the support of the far-right party Vox.

In any case, it is better to prepare for a prolongation of the political instability that has dominated Spain in recent months. Any business initiative in this country must take into account that political scenario as much or more than strictly economic conditions.

La entrada New government, same problems se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

While there is still no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, which has had so many adverse consequences for Europe and Spain, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East creates new threats to stability around the world.

The Hamas terrorist attack against the population of Israel has triggered a strong military reaction by the Israeli Government. The forecast is that violence and armed confrontations could last for months or even years. Other actors, such as Iran, the United States and several Arab countries, may be involved. Taking into account the volatility of the area and its enormous geostrategic importance, the effect of these tensions on the progress of other regions of the world can be very significant.

In the case of Spain, this worrying international context is combined with the extension of the provisional nature of the Government. The general elections of July 23 did not serve to form a clear government majority. The center right Popular Party candidate, Alberto Núnez Feijóo, failed in his attempt to obtain the parliamentary support necessary to be named prime minister.

Now it is the current acting President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez (socialist), who is trying. But to achieve this it depends on the Catalan pro independence parties, who have very little or none interest in the governability of Spain. One of the supporters that Sánchez needs is Carles Puigdemont, who fled from Spanish justice after organizing the illegal 2017 referendum and lives in auto exile in Belgium.

In exchange for his support, Puigdemont demands from Sánchez an amnesty for all crimes committed by the independentists for the organization of that referendum, a step that is opposed by the Popular Party, a majority of jurists and a large part of Spanish society.

Sánchez’s negotiation with the independentists may continue for more than a month. If not successful, Spain would be forced to repeat the elections, probably on January 14, 2024. But even if this negotiation were successful, the Government that would result would be very fragile and constantly subject to the pressure from parties that are not interested in the stability of Spanish democracy.

La entrada A LONG PERIOD OF INSTABILITY AHEAD se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.