The first of these problems is, precisely, that of division. Spain emerges from the general elections of July 23 and the subsequent long process to form a new Government more divided and with a more polarized society. The distance between the two main parties, the Popular Party (PP), on the right, and the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), on the left, has increased considerably. At this time, it is almost impossible to think of measures agreed upon between these two parties to improve the economy and promote the country’s progress.

This division and unrest in society is due, in part, to the way in which the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, has negotiated his continuity in office. Sánchez has managed to revalidate his position thanks to the support obtained by the Catalan independentists in exchange for an amnesty for the crimes committed with the celebration of the illegal referendum on October 1, 2017. One of the beneficiaries of this amnesty will be Carles Puigdemont himself, who is a fugitive from Spanish justice.

This amnesty has been criticized by all organizations of judges, lawyers, notaries, as well as by the majority of senior employees of the Public Administration. Hundreds of thousands of people have demonstrated in the streets against this measure, which has also aroused criticism and distrust among members of the European Parliament.

The concessions to the independentists and other government partners, such as the coalition of far-left Sumar, have also caused concern in some sectors of businessmen due to the risks to legal security required for investment in the country. Some leaders of prominent companies have spoken publicly in this regard and have warned of the need to create conditions of stability and guarantees as soon as possible to facilitate the development of economic activity.

It is difficult to anticipate when and how that political stability can be restored. Some even predict a short life for the Government that has just been born, although the PP does not have enough seats in Parliament to attempt a motion of censure, not even with the support of the far-right party Vox.

In any case, it is better to prepare for a prolongation of the political instability that has dominated Spain in recent months. Any business initiative in this country must take into account that political scenario as much or more than strictly economic conditions.

La entrada New government, same problems se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

While there is still no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, which has had so many adverse consequences for Europe and Spain, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East creates new threats to stability around the world.

The Hamas terrorist attack against the population of Israel has triggered a strong military reaction by the Israeli Government. The forecast is that violence and armed confrontations could last for months or even years. Other actors, such as Iran, the United States and several Arab countries, may be involved. Taking into account the volatility of the area and its enormous geostrategic importance, the effect of these tensions on the progress of other regions of the world can be very significant.

In the case of Spain, this worrying international context is combined with the extension of the provisional nature of the Government. The general elections of July 23 did not serve to form a clear government majority. The center right Popular Party candidate, Alberto Núnez Feijóo, failed in his attempt to obtain the parliamentary support necessary to be named prime minister.

Now it is the current acting President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez (socialist), who is trying. But to achieve this it depends on the Catalan pro independence parties, who have very little or none interest in the governability of Spain. One of the supporters that Sánchez needs is Carles Puigdemont, who fled from Spanish justice after organizing the illegal 2017 referendum and lives in auto exile in Belgium.

In exchange for his support, Puigdemont demands from Sánchez an amnesty for all crimes committed by the independentists for the organization of that referendum, a step that is opposed by the Popular Party, a majority of jurists and a large part of Spanish society.

Sánchez’s negotiation with the independentists may continue for more than a month. If not successful, Spain would be forced to repeat the elections, probably on January 14, 2024. But even if this negotiation were successful, the Government that would result would be very fragile and constantly subject to the pressure from parties that are not interested in the stability of Spanish democracy.

La entrada A LONG PERIOD OF INSTABILITY AHEAD se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

The recent elections on July 23 led to a dispersion of the vote and neither one of the two main parties -Partido Popular (PP) and Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE)- obtained a sufficient majority to form a Government. Spain is a parliamentary system in which the support of at least 176 members of Congress is necessary to constitute a Government.

The center-right PP, which was the winner of the elections with 137 seats in Parliament, already has the support of the far-right party Vox, but it is still far from the 176 necessary to get the green light from Congress.

The Socialist Party (PSOE), which was second with 121 seats, has the support of the far-left Sumar and also appears to have the support of pro-independence parties in Catalonia and the Basque Country. However, to reach the magic number of 176 he will need the support of Puigdemont, who lives in self-exile in Belgium and whom Spanish judges are demanding for crimes against the Constitution and for corruption.

As an essential condition for giving his support to a new government led by socialist Pedro Sánchez, Puigdemont has demanded an amnesty from which both he and hundreds of other people prosecuted for the events of October 1 can benefit. Several experts have warned that such an amnesty would clearly violate the Spanish Constitution. Even former leaders of the PSOE have said that this amnesty would represent an attack against Spanish democracy.

It is not yet known whether Pedro Sánchez will accept Puigdemont’s conditions to continue as President of the Government, although several of his ministers who in the past rejected the amnesty because they considered it unfair and illegal, have now begun to admit that possibility. In the past, Sánchez pardoned other leaders of the 2017 independence uprising, but Puigdemont was excluded because, having fled the country, he has not even been tried.

La entrada In the hands of the independentists se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

This uncertainty coincides with the period in which Spain holds the rotating presidency of the European Union, which runs from July 1st to the last day of December.

The polls predict a victory for the conservative Popular Party (PP), but with an insufficient number of seats in Parliament to be able to form a Government alone. The most feasible alliance would be with the far-right Vox party, but the negotiation could be long and complicated, since the leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has assured that he will not renounce the essential principles of his political program in exchange for being prime minister.

With regard to the party that is now the majority in the Government, the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), no survey gives it as the favorite for victory on the 23rd, although the possibility of forming a Government in a coalition with all the parties at his left, as well as with other nationalist and regionalist parties, is not ruled out.

A coalition of this nature would entail a risk of political instability, since the PSOE would probably have fewer seats in Parliament than it currently has and would be forced to join very different political forces with interests and programs that sometimes clash with those of the PSOE.

Nor would it be easy to build a pact on the right either. Even if the PP were the party with the most votes, it would have to get the support to govern from a party like Vox that repeats the populist and anti-immigration speech that other far-right parties have been delivering in different European countries in recent years.

Therefore, Spain may find itself in a political blockade as of July 23rd that could even last several months. Only an unlikely victory for the PP by an absolute majority would guarantee the rapid formation of a new Government.

Article by Antonio Caño, partner at estudio de Comunicación

La entrada RISK OF POLITICAL BLOCKADE se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

At the same time, this electoral advance supposes the almost total paralysis of the functions of the central Administration, which will be limited to dispatching ordinary affairs during the next six weeks, as well as representing a obstacle for the performance of the rotating presidency of the European Union, which corresponds to occupy Spain as of July 1.

The early calling of elections has been forced by the defeat of the parties that make up the majority of the Government in the municipal and regional elections held on May 28. Both the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the far left party Podemos suffered severe losses in those elections, giving considerable ground to their opponents in the conservative Popular Party, Partido Popular (PP).

Sánchez interpreted this defeat as a vote of punishment for his government’s policy and decided to advance the general elections so that the Spanish voters decide as soon as possible if they maintain confidence in the parties of the current government coalition or prefer that power pass into the hands of the right.

The announcement of this new electoral campaign has further polarized Spanish politics. The Socialist Party warns of the risk that a victory for the Popular Party would entail for the social model that it claims to defend. PP, center right, might have to rely on the far right party Vox in order to achieve a majority in Parliament. The Popular Party, for its part, insists on the need to put an end to what it calls “el sanchismo”, which it defines as a very radical style of government that has led the country to division and confrontation. The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has explained that his intention is to obtain a majority that allows him to govern without Vox.

Meanwhile, the far left is waging a bitter infighting among its leaders, likely to see them divided into July elections with little chance of a good result.

Although PSOE and PP are presented to the voters as radically opposed options, the truth is that the arrival of the conservatives in the Government would not mean a substantial change in the country’s political or economic model, although it is foreseeable, in the event of a victory for the conservatives, an economic policy that places greater emphasis on controlling the deficit and public debt, as well as a brake on tax increases.

The polls so far predict a relatively comfortable victory for the PP. That does not guarantee, however, a majority to immediately form a government. Negotiations to form an Executive can be long and difficult. On the other hand, we must count on the recovery capacity of Pedro Sánchez, who has already shown signs of recovering in circumstances of extreme adversity in the past.

By Antonio Caño, Partner at Estudio de Comunicación

La entrada Early elections se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

Those directly responsible for teams have a decisive impact on the commitment (desire) that employees experience with their organisation, as well as the quality and quantity of their performance (doing and doing better every day). This is a statement that is widely shared for us not to spend more time justifying it.

The flattening of structures, often linked to the increasing automation of tasks, transformed the role of “middle management” many years ago: in the structure, fewer levels above and below; at work, less direct supervision of employees’ actions and more management tasks or feeding and reviewing data into systems. This has led to more cost-efficient organisations and more autonomous staff in carrying out the work. However, alongside these positive results, new challenges are appearing, which call for new solutions.

We quote a conclusion drawn from a McKinsey study: “Companies treat middle managers as a catch-all, requiring them to spend much of their time handling non-managerial work and navigating organisational bureaucracy rather than allowing them to focus on the most important role in an organisation: nurturing talent”.

Yes, nurturing talent where once the priority was the supervision of the workforce.

MANUFACTURING SECTOR

We focus this reflection on the industrial environment, where the complexity implicit in this transformation is very clearly perceived, although similar reflections can be made in administrative or technical environments.

Automation has eliminated many operational tasks, reducing the number of people dedicated to them and transforming their work, which is increasingly focused on the supervision of mechanised processes. Today’s operators – to a large extent – no longer perform physical work at a position on the production line, but sit at control stations or walk around the plant ensuring its smooth operation. In many industrial sites, work clothes are no longer stained by grease from machines, dust from the processing of raw materials or sweat from physical exertion. The new operators bring, above all, knowledge of the process and attention in their supervision. Knowledge and attention… two qualities inherent to intellectual work, now also demanded of those who were previously manual operators.

Knowledge and attention that require encouragement and recognition. Stimulus and recognition of a very different nature to that of the previous operative positions, but equally – if not more – necessary. Stimulus and recognition that cannot be achieved without specific directive action by their direct managers, those “middle managers” whose work many believed would disappear with the automation of physical work.

A person dedicated to providing knowledge and close supervision of the installation for which he or she is responsible has very specific communication needs. They need to know the reason for the processes and the keys to product differentiation, they need to know the upstream and downstream phases of the overall production process and, above all, they need to feel heard so that their knowledge has an impact on the organisation.

Knowing the meaning of the task and the context of the responsibility being carried out; feeling heard and relevant in the decisions of the environment in which they work. Both requirements require close and willing managers who dedicate time to dialogue and sharing with their collaborators -both individually and as a team-. Managers who are aware that they manage “talent” and not “direct labour”.

In our experience, it is necessary to incorporate communication with the teams as a specific responsibility of middle managers, specifying the activities that are required for it, freeing up the necessary time for its implementation and providing the necessary training and content so that this conversation can flow with utility for both (manager and team) and, therefore, for the organisation.

In the past, an authoritarian manager could achieve an efficient production line. Today, we have all realised that shouting at the person supervising a robot is as ineffective as shouting at the robot itself. Not only ineffective, but clearly counterproductive.

Communication with teams can no longer be a variable of each manager’s personal style – something that some managers do because they like it and others do not; communication as an activity of free choice – or something to be done when other obligations allow it – communication as a marginal activity. Communication with teams is one of the keys to achieving their commitment, which is necessary to achieve differential contributions and performance.

Because automation is not just about replacing people with machines.

By Pablo Gonzalo, partner at Estudio de Comunicación

La entrada Middle managers, critical to foster engagement and performance se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

Although most polls predict a victory for the conservative Popular Party throughout Spain as a whole -which could be significant for the national elections at the end of the year-, the most important thing is to know which parties or coalitions will end up governing in each of the 12 autonomous communities and more than 8,000 municipalities that vote on May 28th.

Autonomous communities are very important in Spain, a country with an almost federal government model. Autonomous communities have their own Parlaments and a great capacity to make their own decisions in matters of health, education, taxes and other important areas for the economy. Their role is therefore very relevant for business development.

There are no elections in what are called “historical communities” (Catalonia, Basque Country, Andalusia and Galicia), but there are in others with enormous weight on the Spanish economy, such as Madrid, the Balearic Islands and the Valencian Community.

With the exception of Madrid, where the Popular Party has a great advantage in the polls, in all other major communities the result is difficult to anticipate. We are, therefore, in a period of uncertainty and waiting, which, in the case of Spain, is justified both by global circumstances and by the national political situation.

La entrada WAITING TIME se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

One of the uncertainties that the May elections should help to clear up is that of which will be the dominant parties on the left and what are their chances for that block to have a sufficient majority to govern.

The current Government coalition in Spain is made up of the Partido Socialista Obrero Español  (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos, a group further to its left. However, in recent months internal divisions have arisen within Unidas Podemos and, at this time, it is not clear who will be the candidates to the left of the PSOE.

On Sunday, April 2, Vice President Yolanda Díaz, until now a member of Unidas Podemos, announced her intention to be a candidate for the presidency of the Government at the head of a new party called Sumar. At the same time, the former vice president and former leader of Podemos, Pablo Iglesias, is reluctant to support Díaz and seems willing to present a different candidate.

The division of the forces to the left of the PSOE into two different candidacies would make it more difficult for them to obtain deputies in Parliament and, therefore, would make the repetition of a left-wing coalition Government more unlikely. It is extremely difficult for the PSOE to obtain a sufficient majority to govern on its own.

Therefore, May elections will serve to verify who is stronger on the far left, who is the real boss of that block: Yolanda Díaz or Pablo Iglesias. After that, maybe, just maybe, one of the two will agree to relinquish power.

By Antonio Caño, associate at Estudio de Comunicación

La entrada The division of the left se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

On the economic side, the month of February closed with the announcement of a 6.1% rise in year-on-year inflation. After another previous increase in the month of January, the increase in prices has become a fundamental problem for the Spanish economy. The Government, which had lowered the tax on some foods to alleviate this situation, had anticipated that inflation would begin to fall this year.

Added to this data was the announcement that one of the main Spanish multinationals, Ferrovial, has decided to move its headquarters to the Netherlands. Although the company will maintain its activity in Spain and will continue to be listed on the Spanish Stock Market, this measure has a negative symbolic value for the Government since it calls into question its business friendly policy.

In the political sphere, a case of corruption to which a MP from the main government party, the Socialist Party, appears linked, weakens the image of a Government that had made the fight against corruption a fundamental flag of its political action. Besides this, the serious errors in the application of a crucial law, known in Spanish as “Sólo sí es sí”, has turned part of women and the feminist movement against the Government.

As a consequence of all this, the main opposition party, the center-right Popular Party, has increased its lead in the polls. The popularity of the leader of the Popular Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, already surpasses that of the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez.

La entrada A difficult start of the year se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.

Six out of ten Spaniards, according to a survey carried out this week by the prestigious polling firm Metroscopia, define the economic situation in Spain as “bad”. That includes 86% of voters for the conservative Popular Party, but also 42% of voters for the Socialist Party and even 30% of voters for the leftist Podemos, the two parties that make up the Government coalition.

Nevertheless, that pessimism about the economy does not lead Spaniards towards radicalism. 40% of Spaniards describe their attitude towards the country’s problems as “calm”, while only 16% express “anger” and only 7% confess “fear”.

55% of the population understands that Spain is not so bad if compared to the situation in other similar countries, and 80% assume that various unforeseen events are taking place in the world that should be watched out for.

It can therefore be deduced from these data that Spain is today a moderate country, aware of the economic problems it is going through, but willing to approach them prudently and calmly. It can even be said that Spanish society expresses itself in this electoral year with more prudence than its political class.

La entrada A pessimistic but moderate country se publicó primero en Estudio de Comunicación.